AGP Executive Report

Wellness on board: Fiji Airways just rolled out its FlyWell program at Nadi Airport, adding Vital Red Light therapy in the Premier Lounge and on select long-haul flights starting Jun 1—free for eligible passengers for the first two months, then available to buy onboard from Aug 1. Kiribati’s outlook: The IMF says Kiribati’s growth and poverty reduction have been strong, but warns the country still faces rising fuel costs and climate-linked risks that can quickly flip the script. Digital lifeline: NEC has completed the 2,250 km East Micronesia Cable System (EMCS), bringing first-time optical cable connectivity to parts of Kiribati, FSM (Kosrae), and Nauru—aimed at faster, more reliable internet for services like payments and video calls. Security pressure: Pacific leaders are also bracing for bigger geopolitical swings, with cable vulnerability and deep-sea mining tied to military and drone ambitions showing up in regional security discussions.

Pacific Security Meets Geopolitics: The 55th Pacific Islands Forum Leaders Meeting will convene in Palau (Aug 30–Sep 4) with “Building Economies: Life, Action, Unity,” but the venue is the story—Palau sits in the middle of intensifying China–U.S. competition, and leaders are bracing for a sharper contest across Micronesia, Polynesia, and Melanesia. IMF Watch on Kiribati: The IMF says Kiribati’s growth stayed strong and poverty fell fast, yet warns the outlook is still fragile as fuel costs, external shocks, and climate risks keep pressure on debt distress risk. Digital Connectivity, Faster: NEC says it has completed the 2,250 km East Micronesia Cable System (EMCS), linking Tarawa (Kiribati) to Nauru and onward via Kosrae to Pohnpei—ending reliance on satellite-only links and improving reliability for video calls and digital payments. Cable Vulnerability Risk: A new report highlights how many island nations depend on a small number of undersea cables, leaving them exposed to accidental damage and possible sabotage. Ocean Security & Extraction: A regional security forum also flagged deep-sea mining and new weapons systems as rising pressure points for Pacific control over waters.

Pacific Islands Forum Geopolitics: The 55th Pacific Islands Forum Leaders Meeting will convene in Palau (Aug 30–Sep 4) with “Building Economies: Life, Action, Unity,” and leaders are already flagging big Indo-Pacific security implications as Palau sits in the middle of rising China–US competition. Kiribati Economic Watch: The IMF says Kiribati’s growth and poverty reduction have been strong, but warns risks are climbing from fuel costs, external shocks, and climate vulnerabilities—even with low public debt. NEC Digital Push: NEC says it has completed the 2,250 km East Micronesia Cable System (EMCS), linking Kiribati, FSM, and Nauru with first-time optical connectivity for Kosrae, aiming to cut delays and boost reliability for services like payments and video calls. Subsea Security Concern: A new report highlights how many island nations depend on a small number of vulnerable undersea cables, leaving them exposed to outages from accidents or sabotage.

IMF Outlook: Kiribati’s growth is holding up—4.3% in 2025 and about 3.1% in 2026—but the IMF warns the country still faces rising fuel-cost shocks and climate risks, keeping debt distress risk “high” despite low public debt and falling poverty. Digital Connectivity: NEC says it has completed the 2,250 km East Micronesia Cable System (EMCS), linking Tarawa (Kiribati) to Nauru and onward through Kosrae to Pohnpei—moving several islands off satellite-only links toward faster, more reliable internet for payments, video calls, and e-services. Cable Security: A new report flags how island nations depend on a small number of vulnerable undersea cables, with most failures tied to accidents and some tied to suspected sabotage. Pacific Security Mood: Island leaders are pushing for a stronger say in regional security as great-power tensions intensify, with deep-sea mining and weapons systems also on the agenda.

Pacific Security Jitters: At the Micronesia Security Dialogue on Guam, island leaders and analysts warned that Beijing–Washington brinkmanship over Taiwan could quickly become a local security problem, with China now seen as a “co-superpower” rather than a distant threat. Digital Leap for Kiribati: NEC says it has completed the 2,250 km East Micronesia Cable System (EMCS), linking Tarawa (Kiribati) with Nauru and onward through Kosrae to Pohnpei—ending reliance on satellite-only links and aiming for faster, steadier internet for digital payments and e-government. Deep-Sea Mining Pressure: A security forum heard concerns that critical-mineral mining plans are tied to future military drones and AI weapons, and that Pacific states like Kiribati, Nauru and Tonga may be “played off against each other” in negotiations. Plastic Crisis Push: Kiribati called for stronger upstream action on plastic pollution, stressing it’s largely a downstream country with limited capacity to treat waste. Jobs and Growth Strain: The World Bank warns Pacific growth is slowing under fuel costs and shocks, while youth unemployment remains stubborn—meaning Kiribati’s young population needs a real jobs agenda to pay off.

Pacific Security Stakes: Island leaders and security experts on Guam spent two days gaming out what Trump–Xi brinkmanship could mean locally, warning that mishandling Taiwan could push the U.S. and China toward “clashes and even conflicts,” and stressing that Micronesian islands are now central to great-power competition. Digital Infrastructure Boost: NEC says it has completed the East Micronesia Cable System (EMCS), a ~2,250 km optical submarine link connecting Kiribati (Tarawa), Nauru, and FSM islands including Kosrae and Pohnpei—moving communities beyond satellite-only links toward faster, more reliable internet for services like payments and video calls. Deep-Sea Mining Pressure: A regional security forum heard concerns that mining plans and new weapons systems tied to critical minerals could be used to undermine Pacific islands’ ability to negotiate on their own waters. Plastic Crisis Push: Kiribati renewed calls for stronger upstream action on plastic pollution, noting limited local capacity and the daily burden of beach-washed waste.

Subsea Connectivity Boost: NEC says it has completed the 2,250 km East Micronesia Cable System (EMCS), linking Tarawa (Kiribati) to Nauru, then via Kosrae to Pohnpei—ending reliance on slower, less stable satellite links and paving the way for smoother video calls, digital payments, and e-government services. Pacific Security Pressure: A regional security forum warned that deep-sea mining and new weapons systems are tied to demand for critical minerals for drones and AI-powered arms, with islands like Kiribati, Nauru, and Tonga facing tough bargaining dynamics. Plastic Crisis Push: Kiribati is calling for stronger global “upstream” action to tackle plastic pollution, arguing small island states are stuck dealing with downstream waste they can’t easily process or export. Jobs and Growth Worries: The World Bank flags slowing Pacific growth and a youth jobs gap—many young people are neither in school nor work—while urging a jobs agenda to turn demographics into opportunity. Tourism Shift: Another World Bank report says adventure and cultural tourism could deliver more inclusive, sustainable returns after COVID disruptions.

Subsea Connectivity Boost: NEC has completed the East Micronesia Cable System (EMCS), a ~2,250 km fibre-optic link connecting Kiribati (Tarawa) to Nauru, then via Kosrae in the FSM to Pohnpei—ending reliance on satellite-only links that caused delays and unstable service. Digital Life, Faster: NEC says the new cable will improve reliability and speed for video calls, electronic payments, and e-government, supporting broader digitalization and economic growth. Regional Control Handover: Operational control is handed to FSMTCC (FSM), Bwebweriki Net Limited (Kiribati), and Cenpac (Nauru), with Australia, Japan, and the United States backing the project through grants. Security Pressure on the Horizon: A Pacific security forum warned that deep-sea mining and new weapons systems are tied to demand for critical minerals—raising concerns that islands like Kiribati, Nauru, and Tonga may be pressured against each other. Plastic Crisis Call: Kiribati urged stronger global upstream action to tackle plastic pollution, as local waste systems struggle with limited capacity.

Digital Connectivity: NEC has completed the 2,250 km East Micronesia Cable System (EMCS), linking Tarawa (Kiribati) to Nauru, then onward via Kosrae to Pohnpei in the Federated States of Micronesia—bringing the first optical submarine cable connection to several islands that previously relied on satellite links. Regional Security & Resources: A Micronesia Security Dialogue forum warned that deep-sea mining plans and new military drone/AI weapons could reshape who controls Pacific waters, urging Pacific nations to coordinate standards so they’re not “played off against each other.” Plastic Crisis Push: Kiribati called for stronger global upstream action to tackle plastic pollution, highlighting how remoteness and limited waste options leave islands dealing with the fallout. Economy & Jobs: The World Bank says Pacific growth is slowing under fuel costs, debt and repeated shocks, while youth can become an asset only if governments deliver better jobs. Tourism Pathway: Another World Bank report argues adventure and cultural tourism could help the Pacific build more sustainable, higher-value growth after COVID disruptions.

Digital Connectivity: NEC has completed the East Micronesia Cable System, a 2,250 km undersea link connecting Tarawa (Kiribati) with Nauru, then onward through Kosrae to Pohnpei in the Federated States of Micronesia—bringing faster, more reliable broadband than satellite-only service and supporting e-government, digital payments, video calls, and other growth plans. Pacific Security & Resources: A regional security forum warned that deep-sea mining targets in the Pacific are tied to demand for military drones and AI weapons, raising concerns about islands being pressured against each other and the need for shared standards. Plastic Pollution Push: Kiribati called for stronger global upstream action to tackle the plastic crisis, stressing the limits of small island waste systems. Jobs Under Pressure: The World Bank says Pacific growth is slowing amid fuel costs, debt, and shocks, while youth unemployment remains stubborn—especially for women and in places like Kiribati and Nauru. Ocean & Economy: Vanuatu’s PM urged unity to protect ocean resources, as the World Bank highlights how adventure and cultural tourism could deliver more sustainable returns.

Deep-sea mining meets defence fears: A regional security forum in Guam heard that “critical minerals” being targeted for deep-sea mining are largely meant for advanced military drones and AI weapons—raising fresh concerns that Pacific islands could lose control of their waters as the U.S. expands lease areas near the Marianas. Plastic crisis push: Kiribati is calling for stronger global upstream action on plastic, warning that with limited capacity and costly recycling exports, the country is stuck downstream as plastic waste keeps washing ashore. Jobs vs. youth pressure: The World Bank says Pacific youth could be a “silver lining,” but only if governments deliver a real jobs agenda—especially since many young people are neither in school nor work. Economy under strain: A new World Bank update warns growth across the Pacific is slowing, with fuel costs, weaker tourism, inflation, and repeated shocks keeping incomes below pre-pandemic trends. Care in climate plans: A separate push argues climate adaptation must include care services, not just infrastructure—because heat, disease, and disasters hit vulnerable people hardest.

Pacific Security & Extractives: A regional security forum in Guam warned that deep-sea mining targets in the Pacific are tied to advanced military drones and AI weapons, with experts saying islands like Kiribati, Tonga and Nauru are being “played off against each other” as the U.S. expands lease areas. Plastic Crisis: Kiribati is calling for stronger global upstream action on plastic, saying it’s largely a downstream country where costly recycling exports and limited treatment options leave daily beach-wash plastic piling pressure on waste systems. Jobs for Youth: The World Bank says Pacific economies face slowing growth and tighter budgets, but youth could be a “silver lining” only if governments deliver a real jobs agenda—especially for women and young people stuck outside school and work. Pacific Economy Pressure: A new World Bank update flags growth likely dipping below 3% in 2026 as fuel costs, weaker tourism and repeated shocks keep incomes from bouncing back. Ocean & Tourism: Vanuatu urged unity to protect ocean resources, while the World Bank points to higher-value adventure and cultural tourism as a more sustainable growth path.

Plastic crisis push: Kiribati is calling for a stronger global commitment to upstream action on plastic pollution, warning that the country is stuck dealing with the downstream impacts—plastic waste washes up daily, and limited land and treatment options mean more pressure on already stretched waste systems. Pacific jobs reality check: The World Bank says Pacific economies are facing slowing growth and tighter budgets, but the region’s growing youth population could be an asset only if governments deliver a real jobs agenda—right now, many young people are neither in school nor work, with gaps especially wide for women. Economic headwinds: A new World Bank update warns growth is likely to dip below 3% in 2026 as fuel costs, inflation, weaker tourism, and repeated global shocks keep hitting incomes. Adaptation planning gap: Climate adaptation efforts are missing care services, even though extreme weather and health disruptions fall hardest on children, older people, and people with disabilities. Tourism pathway: Another World Bank report argues adventure and cultural tourism could bring higher, more sustainable returns for Pacific countries—if planned for inclusion and resilience.

Pacific Economic Pressure: The World Bank says Pacific growth is still sliding, with 2026 likely to dip below 3% as fuel costs, inflation, weaker tourism and repeated global shocks keep hitting households and governments—turning crises into a pattern, not a one-off. Tourism Strategy: In the same World Bank push, Pacific leaders are urged to shift toward higher-value adventure and cultural tourism to rebuild more stable, sustainable income after the pandemic shock. Climate Adaptation Gaps: A separate report argues climate plans in the region often miss care services—calling for care support to be built into National Adaptation Plans and NDCs so extreme weather doesn’t just damage homes, but also health and schooling. Blue Finance & Shipping: Advocates highlight how ocean funding still falls far short, while a global green shipping deal at the UN maritime agency remains alive, with adoption possible later this year. Regional Context: Cook Islands and New Zealand have restarted defence and security talks after a recent China-related spat, showing how security and climate pressures are increasingly linked.

Pacific Economic Slowdown: The World Bank Group says Pacific growth is still slipping, with uncertainty high and growth likely to dip below 3% in 2026 as fuel costs, inflation, weaker tourism and repeated global shocks keep squeezing households and budgets. Shock Pattern, Not One-Off: It warns these crises—from disasters to pandemic fallout to shipping and fuel spikes tied to conflict—are becoming a structural feature, so responses must focus on how measures are designed, not just how fast they roll out. Tourism Shift for Resilience: In parallel, the World Bank argues the region can boost returns by leaning into higher-value adventure and cultural tourism, aiming for more sustainable jobs and revenue after pandemic disruptions. Care in Climate Planning: Another thread this week: climate adaptation plans still often miss care services, even though extreme heat and disasters hit children, older people and people with disabilities hardest. Kiribati in the Mix: The World Bank’s update covers Kiribati alongside 10 other Pacific Island countries, tying the economic outlook to the same pressures driving adaptation needs.

Care & Climate Adaptation: New guidance highlights a big gap: care services (for young children, older people, and people with disabilities) are still missing from National Adaptation Plans and NDCs, even as El Niño-linked heat and extremes threaten drought, flooding, disease, and food insecurity. Pacific Tourism Boost: The World Bank says Pacific countries can raise returns by shifting toward higher-value adventure and cultural tourism—an approach that could support jobs and women’s employment after COVID-era losses. Shipping Emissions Deal: Advocates report the UN maritime push to cut shipping emissions (the Net-Zero Framework) is still alive after renewed attempts to derail it, with a possible vote later this year and adoption needing a two-thirds majority. Forests & Oceans Finance: A separate update finds tropical primary forest loss fell sharply from 2024–25, but remains far above 2030 targets; meanwhile, ocean funding is still under 1% of total SDG development finance despite huge economic stakes. Small States Focus: Ongoing coverage stresses how shocks hit small economies hardest—tourism swings, fuel spikes, and disasters can wipe out livelihoods fast.